UAE-India airfares surge as back-to-school rush hits travel costs

Back-to-school rush drives up UAE-India airfares

With schools in the UAE set to reopen later this month, families returning from summer holidays are facing some of the highest airfares of the season on routes from India, prompting many travellers to rethink how they book their journeys home. Demand remains concentrated on essential travel, while geopolitical uncertainty, rising fuel prices and reduced airline capacity continue to keep fares elevated. One-way Economy fares in the last weeks of August, which is when UAE schools reopen after the summer, are in the Dh1,200 (from Mumbai) to Dh3,705 (Kochi) ranges. In comparison, off-peak fares are sometimes available for anything between Dh350 to Dh650.

Travelers are adjusting their return dates to avoid peak prices. Many are returning earlier or later, choosing connecting flights, flying into different Gulf airports or even buying one-way tickets in the hope that fares would fall closer to departure. Travel agents say this trend is becoming more common, with families, especially from low and middle-income groups, adjusting their return dates to coincide with lower-demand periods.

High costs and uncertainty drive travel behavior

Ipshita Sharma of SCN Travel & More said enquiries for holidays have reduced considerably. “Bare essential travel is happening. I have no enquiries for fun travel. Everybody is just going home and coming back. Leisure travel is almost nil.” She said travellers are being hit by a combination of high fares and uncertainty. “Just as things were settling down, the fresh noises have started. And the rumour mills are churning, which doesn’t help.” In some cases, flights now cost more than the holiday itself. “The entire land package with five-star stay and private transfers is less expensive than four flight tickets,” Sharma added. A five-star land package for four people is less expensive than four Etihad flights to get to Bali.

Technology and market trends influence pricing

According to a recent Bloomberg report, the technology is helping airlines capture more revenue on busy routes while reducing the number of discounted seats available, although quieter flights could still see lower fares as carriers seek to fill empty seats. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Monitor showing the global average jet fuel price climbed to $158.77 per barrel for the week ending July 31. While it fell 0.8 per cent compared to the previous week, it has risen 76.4 per cent compared to last year. Several airlines worldwide have also warned of mounting fuel costs, while aviation analysts say carriers continue to face higher labour, maintenance and operating expenses. Adding to the pressure, airlines are increasingly using artificial intelligence to adjust ticket prices in real time based on demand, booking patterns, seat availability and competitor fares.

Travelers become more flexible in booking strategies

Alena Iakina, founder of visarun.ai, said residents are still travelling but are changing how they book. “People are still travelling, but they’re changing how they book. They’re more flexible with dates and open to less common routes.” She said almost 90 per cent of the company’s bookings this month have been for Saudi Arabia, alongside a smaller number of trips to Australia, the UK and the US. “We haven’t seen a single Schengen booking in a few weeks. That really surprised us.” According to Iakina, travellers are avoiding some destinations because of ongoing uncertainty. “We believe so, although it’s also connected to higher costs. People are avoiding some routes and choosing destinations that feel safer at the moment.” She expects fares to remain high during the first half of August before easing once the busiest travel period passes.

• One-way tickets are becoming a common choice
• Travelers are delaying bookings to find cheaper fares
• Leisure travel is almost non-existent

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